Turkey's late October air campaign
Airstrikes targeting civilian and military sites in northern Syria, October 23 - 27
Note: I’m in the middle of a protracted move and am running a few weeks behind. I will have the time to catch up shortly, sorry for the inconvenience.
Background
On the afternoon of October 23rd two PKK operatives stormed the headquarters of state-owned arms company Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ) northwest of Ankara. The attack occurred during a shift change and resulted in the deaths of seven individuals, including four TUSAŞ employees, a taxi driver, and the perpetrators themselves, and the injury of 22 others. The PKK claimed the attack two days later in a statement which identified the assailants and classified TUSAŞ as a military target, due its production of the Anka drone series, a key weapons system within the Turkish state’s war against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan and against the SDF in northern Syria.
The attack occurred as rumors relating to a renewed peace process between Turkey and the PKK swirled and on the same day that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan was visited by family for the first time in four years, though the PKK statement claimed the attack had been in the works for a while. For more on this context listen to my recent discussion with Turkey analyst Selim Koru, in which he argues such rumors were unlikely to develop into anything resembling the peace process which broke down in 2015.
Several hours after the attack Turkey responded with airstrikes and artillery bombardment targeting the PKK in Iraq Kurdistan and civilian and military infrastructure in northern Syria. This follows a pattern that emerged in late 2022 in which Turkey reacts to attacks in Turkey or Iraqi Kurdistan claimed by or blamed on the PKK with airstrikes targeting SDF-controlled Syria, recently focussed on energy infrastructure. Previous bouts include:
The November 13th 2022 Istiklal Avenue bombing in Istanbul attack which Turkey blamed on the PKK and the SDF. This was followed by about a week of airstrikes detailed here, here, and here, as part of Turkey’s broader Operation Claw-Sword.
The October 1st 2023 PKK attack targeting the General Directorate of Security headquarters in Ankara, to which Turkey responded with airstrikes targeting Iraqi Kurdistan and northern Syria (detailed here and here).
The deaths of twelve Turkish soldiers during a PKK attack on a Turkish base in Iraqi Kurdistan on December 22nd/23rd 2023, followed by three days of airstrikes targeting northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.
The deaths of nine Turkish soldiers during a PKK attack on a Turkish base in Iraqi Kurdistan on January 12th 2024, to which Turkey responded the next day with airstrikes in northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.
According to a statement published by the Asayish on October 27th this three day Turkish escalation consisted of 129 drone strikes, 15 airstrikes, and over 1,000 shelling incidents, resulting in the deaths of 14 civilians and four military personnel. Drone and airstrikes were heavily concentrated in al-Hasakah governorate (aka al-Jazirah province), while shelling was evenly dispersed between al-Hasakah, al-Furat province (Kobanî and parts of al-Raqqah), Manbij, and the al-Shahba’ pocket. More detailed logs of attacks can be read via the Asayish’s daily updates (10/24, 10/25, 10/26) and Rojava Information Center’s October 26th report.
Civilian casualty events
Shelling targeting Tell Rifa‘at during the evening of October 23rd killed five civilians including a five year old child. CCTV footage shared to social media shows a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) barrage of nine rockets striking the center of the town. The randomness of the attack points to SNA factions being responsible - several of which posted videos of fighters firing MLRS barrages that night (see below).
A series of airstrikes targeting the al-Suwaydiyah 3 oil refinery after midnight on October 24th killed seven workers and guards while injuring 17 others.
Geolocated strikes
Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) disseminated footage to the public via various state-run or state-aligned media outlets of at least twenty two drone strikes. The Turkish military (TSK) also published a video to Twitter on October 24th showing a number of airstrikes carried out by F-16s, however it appears only one of these targets was located in Syria - the rest occurred in Iraqi Kurdistan. This follows the general pattern in which MIT rather than the Turkish military carries out the bulk of the targeted drone strikes in Syria. Below are nineteen geolocated sites seen in Turkish footage along with 16 geolocated from local media, with any additionally available information regarding the target included. The targets include an array of Asayish and presumably SDF sites as well as electrical substations, oil stations and refineries, grain depots, and various industrial facilities. The sites detailed below make up the majority of those shown in local media which often times does not have access to SDF military sites targeted by drone strikes or the aftermath of strikes occurring in remote locations, meaning this is information is incomplete and skews towards urban and civilian usage.
Security & military sites
10/24/24: Asayish facility, south of Kobanî (36.858306, 38.332056)
video of MIT strike [0:25]
10/24/24: Asayish checkpoint, southwest of Kobanî (36.881972, 38.325778)
10/24/24: Asayish headquarters, Haram Sheikho (37.043389, 41.089639)
10/24/24: Asayish headquarters, ‘Antariyah, al-Qamishli (37.060139, 41.244194)
10/24/24: Garage entrance near Asayish HQ, ‘Antariyah, al-Qamishli (37.058110, 41.243811)
10/26/24: Asayish headquarters, ‘Antariyah, al-Qamishli (37.059361, 41.244889)
video of MIT strike [0:00]
10/26/24: Asayish HQ, ‘Amude (37.096450, 40.935791)
witness video of strike
reportedly struck three times
10/25/24: Likely SDF site, near Tepkê (37.063361, 42.129500)
video of MIT strike [1:11]
10/26/24: Likely SDF site, near Mêrga Mira/Raghdan (37.075111, 42.146389)
video of MIT strike [0:28]
10/26/24: Likely SDF site, Jebel Qarachokh (37.063028, 42.167917)
10/26/24: HXP Center, Jirkan, al-Qamishli (37.064184, 41.250150)
Infrastructure
10/24/24: al-‘Awdah oil field, near Tirbespiyê/al-Qahtaniyah (37.016306, 41.587194)
video of TSK strike [2:32]
10/24/24 video of aftermath at (36.998453, 41.563424)
10/25/24 video of aftermath at (37.014243, 41.583952)
10/24/24: al-Sa‘idah oil station (37.097344, 41.623724)
photos of US soldiers at site (10/30/24)
10/24/24: ‘Amude Electrical Transfer Station (37.082450, 40.930358)
photos of aftermath
10/24/24: Kobanî Electrical Transfer Station (36.865567, 38.333185)
photo of aftermath
1/2/3/. al-‘Awdah oil field, 4. al-Sa‘idah oil station, 5. ‘Amude substation, 6. Kobanî substation 10/24/24: Industrial bakery, ‘Amude (37.092614, 40.959405)
10/24/24: Storehouse at al-Qamishli grain silos (37.064218, 41.261466)
10/25/24: Buildings at Rovi grain silos (36.781135, 38.305370)
10/25/24: civilian oil refineries, Tell al-‘Awdah (36.956697, 41.644925)
video of aftermath
10/26/24: gas cylinder warehouse, Gir Zîro/Tell ‘Adas oil station (36.998682, 42.071885)
10/26/24: Agricultural Development Company, Jirnak, al-Qamishli (37.065833, 41.247167)
video of MIT strike [1:32]
previously bombed in December 2023
Other
10/24/24: Khalij medical dispensary, Meskîn Helku, al-Qamishli (37.036556, 41.228167)
10/24/24: near Meshtanour Health Clinic, Kobanî (36.890694, 38.342389)
video of MIT strike [0:35]
Meshtanour medical center bombed in December 2023
10/24/24: near Meshtanour Health Clinic, Kobanî (36.890472, 38.342750)
video of MIT strike [0:00]
Meshtanour Health Clinic bombed in December 2023
10/24/24: Industrial building, al-Qamishli train yard (37.044278, 41.247444)
10/24/24: Industrial site, Rumaylan (37.002194, 41.947278)
10/24/24: Industrial building, Mêrga Mira (37.073529, 42.131621)
10/25/24: Plastic/Nylon factory, Mêrga Mira (37.073872, 42.132233)
10/25/24: Roj factory, Mêrga Mira (37.072975, 42.134245)
video of aftermath
10/25/24: construction company, Haram Sheikho (37.042603, 41.091260)
10/25/24: Industrial site, Rumaylan (37.006528, 41.948917)
video of MIT strike [0:11]
10/25/24: Industrial site, ‘Arour (37.035722, 42.031361)
video of MIT strike [0:38]
10/25/24: Industrial site, ‘Arour (37.035361, 42.037417)
video of MIT strike [0:54]
10/26/24: industrial building, Dêrik/al-Malikiyah (37.176686, 42.149239)
video of strike
10/26/24: ‘construction center’, Tell Tamer (36.656655, 40.367437)
video of aftermath
10/26/24: Zouzan cheese and dairy factory, Dêrik/al-Malikiyah (37.158781, 42.132448)
10/26/24: building at Lafarge Cement Plant (36.547223, 38.586725)
video of aftermath
SDF ‘martyrs’
Henûş Bekê, Asayish. Killed 10/23/24 in Kobanî
Îskender Efrîn, HRE. Killed 10/23/24 in the Afrin region
Welat Qerejdax, HRE. Killed 10/23/24 in the Afrin region
‘Adnan al-Hamadah, SDF Commando Forces. Killed 10/27/24 in Tell Gadish, al-Dirbasiyah
SDF response attacks
10/24/24: “The forces of the Manbij Military Council and the Kurdish Front carried out a series of strikes on the Karbajli, Shawa, Sheikh Nasir, Baldaq, and Sheikh Aqil bases.”
Corresponds with a Syrian Civil Defense report that rockets struck civilian neighborhoods in al-Bab, injuring seven [“Sheikh ‘Aqil” presumably referring to the Jebel ‘Aqil base on a hill overlooking al-Bab].
10/25/24: [HRE] “Our forces carried out a sniper operation on the Mare‘ axis, and as a result of that operation, one of the mercenaries was killed.”
10/25/24: “Our SDF forces have conducted two operations targeting the bases of the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries near the villages of ‘Aniq Al-Hawa and Bab al-Faraj in the Zarkan countryside. These operations resulted in eliminating and injuring several Turkish occupation soldiers and its mercenaries.”
10/26/24: [MMC] “Our forces targeted the bases of the Turkish occupation with heavy weapons and they are as follows: Baldaq base, al-Shaqif, al-Sheikh Nasir, Qiratah.”
10/26/24: “Our SDF forces have targeted, on Friday, a military base belonging to the Turkish occupation in the village of al-‘Aziziyah, located in the countryside of Tal Tamir. The operation resulted in direct injuries to four Turkish occupation soldiers and the destruction of one military vehicle.”
10/26/24: “Our forces targeted Turkish occupation bases stationed in the occupied countryside of Tell Tamer [including at Tell Manakh], resulting in the injury of eight Turkish occupation soldiers and the damage of three military vehicles. In the ‘Ain ‘Isa countryside, our forces targeted two Turkish occupation bases located in the villages of Sayda and al-Mazra‘ah, wounding several occupation soldiers, whose exact number remains unknown.”
The media is so silent.