This week in Northern Syria (XX)
A rundown of key events from Turkish/SNA & SDF-controlled territories
On the night of November 19th Turkey initiated a massive escalation against the AANES consisting of airstrikes and artillery barrages across northern Syria - from Aleppo to the Iraqi border. This move is ostensibly a response to the bombing of Istanbul’s Istiklal Street on November 13th, though the Turkish government has yet to publish actual evidence tying the SDF to the attack.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense has given this escalation (still ongoing as I write this on November 23rd) the name Operation Claw Sword and Turkish officials up to President Erdoğan have repeatedly threatened to expand the operation into a full scale ground offensive. Whether this will occur is still up in the air and largely depends on whether the US and Russia will give Turkey the go ahead. Officials from the two countries have made somewhat ambiguous statements recognizing both Turkey’s “security concerns” while discouraging a potential ground offensive due to regionally destabilizing effects it would have. It’s unclear what is being said between the three parties behind closed doors, therefore making predictions seems to be a futile endeavor at this time.
The first section of this newsletter covers events relating to Turkey’s “Operation Claw-Sword” while the second half is dedicated to other new from across northern Syria occurring between November 15th to the 21st.
11/19/22-11/20/22
A power station located outside the northwestern al-Hasakah village of Teqil Beqil was reportedly targeted by Turkey with a ‘double tap’ strike, in which the site was struck a second time after first responders and local civilians arrived to the scene. Eleven civilians were reportedly killed while another six were injured. The destruction caused by the attack reportedly left dozens of villages in the area without power. RIC published testimony collected from witnesses several days later.
[ON THE GROUND] In Teqil Beqil, Derik, Turkey's 'double-tap' strike last night killed 9 civilians, including 1 journalist, and injured 3. RIC visited the site to record the impact of the bombing.(source) Journalist Esam Abdulah lost his life dut to #turkish bombardement while he was covering it near #Dêrik, east #Syria.Location of site target: 37.052892, 42.217882 This site had previously been targeted by a Turkish airstrike in February 2022 which killed five SDF members guarding the premises and injured four civilians.
Several civilians including a journalist were injured in a Turkish ‘double tap’ strike, as they were examining damage incurred earlier by what was reportedly a hospital on a hilltop overlooking Kobanî.
Dewleta Tirk bi balafirên şer êrişî Rojava kir. Ev der kobanê ye..Bajarê ku cara pêşî DAIŞ lê şkest. Ev jî kêliya êrişa dewleta Tirk li ser tîma ragihandinê ya Ronahî TV û Stêrk TV ye. Nûçegihanê Stêrk TV birîndar bû.Site is located at 36.881150, 38.363568 A detailed report by RIC on other sites targeted November 19th/20th can be read here.
Geolocations of video published by the Turkish MoD:
Turkish airstrike on a building next to the grain silos in Darbasiyah countryside google.com/maps?ll=36.955…Terör yuvaları tam isabet vuruşlarla yerle bir ediliyor! 🇹🇷 https://t.co/9jiFRn0hejT.C. Millî Savunma Bakanlığı @tcsavunmaHêzên Rizariyah Efrinê (HRE) announced that five of their fighters had been killed in Turkish airstrikes in al-Shahba’ region the night of November 19th.
At least nine SAA soldiers were killed in Turkish airstrikes targeting positions in al-Shahba’ and northwestern al-Hasakah (Abu Rassin/Zirgan front), areas where regime forces are deployed alongside the SDF. Head of the SDF’s Media Center Farhad Shami reported that fifteen regime soldiers were killed in total.
#Syria: it turns out #Turkey killed past hours, during retaliatory airstrikes, highest (documented) number of Assad's forces since early 2020. 6 slain in area of Tell Rifaat (N. #Aleppo) & 3 in N. Hasakah.#Syria: rising number of Regime forces killed following Turkish airstrikes. Pics 1-2 for those slain in N. #Hasakah & last pic shows soldier killed near Tell Rifaat (N. #Aleppo). Both pictured were from Latakia province. https://t.co/jUp9KqKx0CQalaat Al Mudiq @QalaatAlMudiqProjectiles fired from al-Shahba’ landed in the Turkish province of Kilis in the vicinity of the Öncüpinar/Bab al-Salamah crossing, reportedly injuring eight Turkish security personnel. This attack and another targeting a Turkish base near the Syrian village of Dabiq were later claimed by HRE.
11/21/22
Three Turkish civilians including a child and teacher were killed in a rocket attack on the border town of Karkamış, located just north of Turkish/SNA-controlled Jarabulus. The rockets were most likely fired from nearby SDF/regime controlled territory across the Euphrates river in the Kobanî region. Turkish state media reported that “the rockets hit three schools, two houses and a truck close to the Karkamış Border Gate,” most of which has been confirmed by geolocation.
Öncüpınar was targeted again by rockets fired from SDF/regime controlled territory. This time there were no reported casualties. The attack has yet to be claimed.
A Furqat al-Sultan Suleiman Shah fighter was killed in an SDF rocket attack targeting front line positions in the ‘Peace Spring’ area. If information I’ve previously collected regarding SNA faction distribution is still correct, this most likely occurred on the ‘Ain ‘Isa front.
Other Events
11/16/22: Local Police forcefully broke up a demonstration in the middle of al-Bab city. Protestors had assembled under the hashtag “day of the truth” (يوم_الحقيقة#) to continue demanding justice for slain activist Abu Ghannoum, murdered along with his pregnant wife in early October. This comes after a recent ruling by the al-Bab Local Council greatly limiting the ability to protest.
11/17/22: CENTCOM reported that the US’s Green Village base in Deir ez-Zour had come rocket fire, presumably from Iranian-backed militias operating in nearby regime-controlled territory.
11/17/22: CENTCOM commander Gen. Kurilla visited al-Hawl a day after two Egyptian teenage girls held at the camp were reportedly beheaded.
11/18/22: SDF Commander-in-Chief visited Shammar Sheikh Man’ al-Hamidi al-Daham, offering condolences for the passing of Sheikh Humaydi last week and congratulating him on his new title.
11/19/22: Ahrar al-Sham Eastern Sector announced it was joining the SNA’s Second Legion. This Ahrar al-Sham contingent is active around al-Bab and has been at the center of the recent intra-SNA conflict due to its contentious relationship with al-Jabhah al-Shamiyah, which it was once affiliated with. Judging by contemporary Telegram activity, it appears that Ahrar al-Sham Eastern Sector has remained loyal to Ahrar al-Sham commander ‘Amir al-Sheikh in the group’s ongoing identity crisis/power struggle. More on recent SNA faction shuffling here.
11/20/22: The SNA Third Legion briefly reentered the town of Kafr Jannah at the Afrin-A’zaz border, which it had lost last month to HTS and allies Furqat al-Hamzah and Furqat al-Sultan Suleiman Shah. It appears that Third Legion fighters temporarily took over a former headquarters of the group (located here), however soon after this contingent withdrew back to A’zaz, reportedly due to pressure from Turkey.