This Week in Northern Syria [5.2025]

January 29 - February 4: Ahmad al-Shar' named President; hosts Qatari Emir and visits Saudi and Turkey, 24 killed in Manbij car bombs, effects of USAID freeze, and more

This week in Ahmad al-Shar‘…

On January 29th the HTS-led Department of Military Operations (DMO) convened the “Victory Conference of the Syrian Revolution” in Damascus, a meeting attended by affiliated and unaffiliated Syrian armed opposition factions. While ‘conference’ implies a consultative endeavor, the snippets of the event publicized via various state media organs instead present HTS and its commander Ahmar al-Shar‘ formalizing their control of the Syrian state, a product of the military offensive they initiated in late November of last year against the Asad regime. The attendance of presumably most of the armed groups in Syria - apart from the Syrian Democratic Forces - does not mean that these factions had a role in the decisions produced at the conference but that they, at the least, acquiesced to HTS’s bid to monopolize violence and re-establish the sovereignty of Damascus.

HTS Commander Ahmad al-Shar‘ appears to have addressed the audience of several hundred military commanders first, ordering Syria’s current priorities as: “filling the power vacuum…in a lawful manner,” “preserving civil peace by ensuring transitional justice and preventing acts of revenge,” “rebuilding state institutions,” “reviving the economy,” and “restoring Syria’s regional and international standing.” After a speech by interim Foreign Minister As‘ad al-Shaibani, DMO spokesman Hassan ‘Abd al-Ghani addressed the audience with a nine point announcement, declaring:

• the victory of the Syrian Revolution, to be marked each year on December 8th

• the cancellation of the 2012 constitution and suspension of all emergency laws

• the dissolving of the People’s Council, Syria’s legislative body, and all its committees

• the dissolving of the army with intention of rebuilding it

• the dissolving of all security apparatuses and militias of previous regime, to be replaced with a new security institution

• the dissolving of the Arab Socialist Ba‘th Party and the allied parties of the National Progressive Front, a collection of irrelevant Nasserist parties and splinters of the Syrian Communist Party and of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

• the dissolving of all military factions, political and civil revolutionary bodies, to be merge into state institutions

• the appointment of HTS commander Ahmad al-Shar‘ to the position of president during the transitional phase

• the authorization of President al-Shar‘ to form an interim legislative body until a permanent constitution is established.

Thirteen other military commanders spoke at the conference: six from the Syrian National Army (SNA), four from non-HTS Idlib factions (Ahrar al-Sham, Suqour al-Sham, Faylaq al-Sham, and Jaysh al-‘Izzah), two from Dar‘a, and one representing US-backed forces based in al-Tanf. The SNA-affiliated speakers included:

• ‘Azzam Gharib of al-Jabhah al-Shamiyah, currently the Caretaker Government’s Governor of Aleppo

• ‘Issam al-Buwaydani of Jaysh al-Islam

• Fahim ‘Isa of Furqat al-Sultan Murad

• Ahmad al-Hayyes (“Abu Hatim Shaqra”) of Furqat Ahrar al-Sharqiyah and coalition Harakat al-Tahrir wa’l-Bina’, sanctioned by the US over human rights abuses

• Saif Abu Bakr of Furqat al-Hamzah and coalition al-Quwwah al-Mushtarikah, sanctioned by the US over human rights abuses

• Muhammad al-Jasim (“Abu ‘Amshah”) of Furqat al-Sultan Suleiman Shah and coalition al-Quwwah al-Mushtarikah, sanctioned by the US over human rights abuses

Gharib, al-Buwaydani, 'Isa, al-Hayyes, Abu Bakr, al-Jasim

Together these six arguably make up the most influential figures within the SNA though as has been emphasized previously the SNA is not a cohesive actor. Gharib and al-Buwaydani have appeared much closer to HTS since the regime fell, while the other four are more invested in anti-SDF efforts. That being said the role these commanders were awarded in the conference shows that the key actors of the SNA have accepted HTS’s demands: what remains to be seen is how the process of faction dissolution and army construction plays out in reality.

(source)

Responses to the proclamations of the conference and the appoint of al-Shar‘ to the Presidency were mixed. Key opposition bodies such as Etilaf, the Syrian Islamic Council, and the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Government voiced their support for the declarations, though many civil society groups and Syrians more broadly took issue with the conference being an all-military affair with no civilian consultation, among other aspects. Several days later the DAANES denounced the conference, saying that such decisions should have been made within a national, representative conference that included civilians, while condemning the participation of Ahmad al-Hayyes due to Ahrar al-Sharqiyah’s killing of DAANES politician Hevrin Khalaf, and Muhammad al-Jasim due to widespread abuses attributed to him and his faction.

The following day Interim President al-Shar‘ addressed the nation at large in a short speech, pledging to form a “transitional government that expresses the diversity of Syria,” while announcing that committees will be created to select the interim legislator and to prepare for the still undated National Dialogue Conference, and that a “Constitutional Declaration” will be issued to guide the transitional period.