This week in Northern Syria (XXIb)
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This week in Northern Syria (XXIb)
Covering Turkish attacks on northern Syria and other events from November 24th to November 28th
Turkey’s air campaign slowed down from the November 19-23 high point though artillery barrages continue to rain down on AANES territory from Tell Rifa’at to Dêrik. Tensions remain high as Turkey continues to insist ground operations are forthcoming, statements from Mazloum ‘Abdi and other AANES/SDF officials make such sounds like an inevitability, and American and Russian public condemnation of Turkish belligerence remain weak.
Events
11/24/22
Turkey continued to target oil infrastructure in AANES-controlled territory, including a facility near the town of Ali Agha in the Dêrik/al-Malikiyah region. According to local officials, the al-Suweidiyah gas plant was put out of service after being targeted multiple time in the days prior. Al-Suweidiyah is apparently the only gas plant in northern Syria capable of filling domestic gas cylinders and generating electricity (supplying 50% of the Jazirah region’s electricity), making its operation crucial to the local economy.
خروج معمل غاز #السويدية في شمال شرق #سوريا عن الخدمة حسب مدير المعمل بسبب القصف #التركي . المعمل يرفد منطقة الجزيرة في سوريا ب 50% من الكهرباء و 100 % من الغاز المنزلي ، وبسبب عدم توفر قطع الغيار في سوريا يتوقع وحسب المدير ان تشهد المنطقة اياما دامسة في الظلام . 👇🏿👇🏿The damage visible in footage of the gas plant is located in the southern part of the facility.
Ezdina reported that the residents of the Ezidi village of Otelje, located northeast of al-Qahtaniyah/Tirbespî just three kilometers south of the Turkish border, had fled their homes due to days of Turkish bombardment. For those interested I’ve put together a map of (pre-war) Ezidi villages in al-Hasakah based on research conducted by @ver_scholl_en.
For more information on Turkish air raids and artillery strikes occurring on November 24, see reports published by the SDF and by RIC.
The US base in al-Shaddadi (southern al-Hasakah countryside) was targeted with rocket fire, presumably from Iranian-backed pro-regime militias.
Residents of Kuwait al-Rahmah IDP camp protested in front of Afrin’s Serail building, the site of the Hatay governor’s office in the city, demanding new housing after having to vacate the camp due to repeated rocket attacks and shelling stemming from SDF and regime controlled territory to the east.
11/25/22
According to the report published by the SDF, Turkish attacks were limited to mortar and artillery shelling and didn’t target anywhere east of Tell Tamer.
11/26/22
Turkish warplanes dropped flares over the regime outpost on Tell Jarqali, on the Turkish border west of Kobanî.
For more information on Turkish air raids and artillery strikes occurring on November 26, see the report published by the SDF.
11/27/22
AANES officials told NPA that the damage done to the Zahr al-’Arab grain silos the week prior required $150,000 in repairs in order to return to service. Estimates of damages done to AANES infrastructure in the past two week have been placed in the tens of millions.
For more information on Turkish air raids and artillery strikes occurring on November 27, see the report published by the SDF.
A meeting was held in al-Qamishli between commander of Russian forces in Syria Alexander Chaikho and SDF commander in chief Mazloum Abdi regarding the threat of a Turkish ground operation. According to (pro-Hezbullah Lebanese outlet) al-Mayadeen Chaikho "reintroduced the idea of the deployment of the Syrian army along the border strip, at a depth of 30 km," which alongside an SDF withdrawal from this same area is a key Turkish demand. No agreements were reached.
The SNA Military Police in al-Bab arrested two members of an alleged terrorist cell affiliated with Syrian regime Military Security. Two other members of the cell remain at large.
An SNA commander affiliated with the First Legion known as ‘Abbas Abu Khadijah was reportedly killed when the car he was traveling in on the Afrin-Rajo road was targeted by an IED. This attack has yet to be claimed and given the diverse array of clandestine cells in the area - belonging to the SNA, IS, HTS, SDF, and regime - it’s unlikely the perpetrator will be identified.
11/28/22
Other
“Syria in the shadow of the Ukraine War: Turkish sabre-rattling and Russian bargaining,” Aron Lund, FOI. Background on Turkish and Russian Syria policy, the relationship between the two, the role of the Ukraine war, and what’s driving current escalation (also, implications for Swedish foreign policy if you’re into that kind of thing).
The volatility of the negotiating process discourages easy conclusions, but, in the long run, it appears likely that the Kurdish forces will lose control of the enclaves, in one way or another. It is also probable that Turkey and Syria will resume public contacts, even though early gestures in that regard are unlikely to be expanded in the short term.
The British Middle East expert Christopher Phillips has concluded that Turkey’s past campaigns in Syria were, in fact, not launched in response to sudden security emergencies. Rather, Turkey has tended to act opportunistically in response to changes in the geopolitical environment that increase its freedom of manoeuvre, and under the influence of domestic factors.40 The escalation in 2022 fits this pattern well.
A’zaz News Agency published aerial photos of ‘Ain Daqnah, a regime/SDF-controlled village located on the al-Shahba’/Euphrates Sheild front lines just north of Tell Rifa’at. I believe the pictures are old but they do show just how destroyed most settlements are in the area.
Not about northern Syria, but on IS so related: “The Killing of the Islamic State's Leader in Deraa Province: Analysis and Resources for Context,” Aymenn’s Monstrous Publications (Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi)
“Desertification hits al-Hasakah; destroys Abdul-Aziz reserve,” Majd al-Salem, Enab Baladi
Photograph taken in 1970 of Afrin’s Gemrûkê (or Meydankey) falls. This is a great account dedicated to historical photographs of locations around Syria, dating back to the Ottoman era.
